Stealing home plate is one of the most exciting and difficult plays to pull off in all of sports. Runners often find themselves on the losing side of this pursuit with a success rate that lies somewhere around 25% between the years 2000 -2015 (Steals of Home Since 2000). There are many factors that play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this difficult grand theft. Instincts, anticipation, timing, ability to read the pitch and of course speed are all significant factors. In this scenario we push one of those factors, speed, to the extreme by putting the fastest man ever, Usain Bolt, on the basepath.
While speed is clearly an important factor, statistics show us that it alone will not lead to success. If speed were the only determining factor, Chase Utley (87.79%) and Carlos Beltran (86.43%) would not sit at number 2 and 3 in the all time steal percentage rankings. To put things into perspective, let’s examine other speedy crossover athletes who stepped onto the diamond.
Football/baseball star and superhuman athlete Bo Jackson ranks 301st in regards to all time steal percentage. He checks in with a 71.93% success rate despite logging a controversial but legendary 4.12 40 time at the 1986 NFL combine. Fellow football/baseball phenom Dieon Sanders ran a 4.27 at the combine, but his 74.7% steal percentage barely cracks the top 200 coming in at 199. One of the fastest active MLB players, Billy Hamilton, has been top 3 in steals over the last 4 years. According to Hamilton, he last ran the 40 yard dash in the 9th grade and ran a 4.5. While he surely is faster now, his time would still pale in comparison to Bolt’s 40 that would clock in at sub 4 seconds if timed by NFL standards according to this detailed article. (Bolt 40 Time).
Here are some more numbers to consider. It’s about 88 feet between basemarkers so with a 10 foot lead Bolt would need to travel about 78 feet (23.77 Meters). According to the chart below, Bolt would need somewhere around 3.22 seconds to cover that distance on his feet.
Shave off a bit more time for the slide and I’d say he is reaching home 3.1 flat. According to this article (Pitcher Delivery Time), the average pitcher delivery took 1.4 seconds in 2013. Depending on the jump, that leaves the catcher approximately 1.7 seconds to receive the pitch and place the tag before Bolt touches the plate.
As I stated earlier, stealing bases is about much more than speed. That being said, the MLB has never seen anyone with the speed of Bolt and that certainly is a factor that can’t be ignored.
So, this leaves me with 2 questions for you.
- What would Bolt’s steal % be when attempting to steal home?
- Game 7, bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, man on third… You’re obviously putting Bolt in, but are you sending him?
Bonus Clip: Can’t talk stealing home plate without throwing in the clip Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez. Sorry for the terrible quality but it’s the best I can find.
To check out the rest of this week’s Sports Scenarios click on the link below.
