We are 2 short days away from the annual showdown at Roland Garros on the red dirt. With Qualifications for the French Open almost complete, it’s about time I breakdown the field for those who haven’t been following the clay season.  We have a talented roster filled with a lot of the usual suspects although there are plenty of new names that have emerged as serious contenders who deserve our attention.  Let’s start with those who I consider to be the top challengers for the title.

Top Contenders (And Federer)

Rafa is back and might be better than ever.  He is certainly showing his best form since last taking down this title in 2014. He’s playing out of his mind losing only one clay match all season coming last week to Dominic Thiem and winning every other clay tournament he’s entered dropping only 2 sets in the process.  Nadal is going to enter the French a heavy favorite as he has many times before and it’s clearly for a good reason.  His dominance thus far is impossible to ignore and I’d be shocked if he wasn’t celebrating by doing his traditional yet stupid bite on the trophy for the photographers.  While I am not a Rafa hater, I do despise that celebration and sincerely hope he chips a tooth if he ends up chomping down on the trophy this year.

The biggest threat to Rafa in this tourney is unfortunately not going to be taking the court this year.  Roger Federer, who has been outstanding in 2017, has not played a single match on the pottery this season and that won’t change for the French.  He won 3 of the 4 tourneys he entered on the hard court this season, including the Australian open for his 18th major, and defeated Nadal in the finals for 2 of his 3 tournament victories.  While none of those victories came on clay, Roger is always a threat on any surface and I can guarantee Nadal will not miss seeing his nemesis across the net for this one.  Players should enjoy it while they can because Roger will be back in full swing for the grass season and well rested for his attempt to capture his 8th Wimbledon title.

Let’s get back to players that are competing in Paris this year and revisit the aforementioned Dominic Thiem.  Thiem has looked outstanding on clay thus far and is the only man to take down Nadal on this surface all year.  To keep things in perspective, his victory did come on the heels of back to back finals losses to Nadal prior to his triumph.  Nonetheless, Thiem’s win was a dominant display of talent winning in straight sets (7 – 6) (6 – 4) by striking the ball with unbelievable power and precision.  He played risky and aggressive tennis all match, dictating the points and choosing the right shots in the right situations.  His play that match was extraordinary and if he can execute like that consistently he may be able to pull off a shocking upset for his first major.  Unfortunately he has not proven his ability to bring that level of play into every match as he was dismantled by Novak Djokovic in the following contest (6 – 1) (6 – 0).  To be fair, Novak seems to own Thiem holding a 5 – 0 record over him and only ever dropping one set coming via tiebreaker.  Regardless, the young Austrian is a man to be reckoned with and I will not be surprised if he repeats his 2016 accomplishment of a semi-finals appearance or better.

You may think it’s odd that I have not highlighted the number 1 and 2 players in the world thus far.  I am of course talking about the two men who appeared in the final in Paris last year, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic.  Both men are coming into the tourney uncharacteristically playing inconsistent tennis and dropping matches to opponents who would typically have no chance against these two all time greats.  The Djokovic decline began last year when Andy Murray wrestled away his #1 ranking ending the 2 year 4 month long reign of Novak.  The struggles have continued into 2017 causing Djokovic to fire his entire team in search of a solution.  He has already lost 6 times this season to the likes of players such as Goffin, Krygrios (2x), Nadal, A. Zverev, and fucking Denis Istomin!  While most of these guys are phenomenal players in their own right, keep in mind that Djokovic only lost 6 times total at the height of his dominance in 2015.  He had just 8 losses in 2014 and 9 in 2016.  At this pace, he looks destined for his first double digit loss season in 4 years.  Something is off with Novak, and if his matchup with Rafa in Madrid (6 – 2) (6 – 4) two weeks ago is any indication of his chances against the favorite, he will not be defending his 2016 French crown.

Murray is a whole other story.  He had a fairy tale 2016 that included titles at Wimbledon, the Olympics, and the ATP tour finals.  He also achieved the #1 world singles ranking for the first time in his career.  He finished his 2016 in spectacular fashion and there was no reason to think he would slow down in 2017.  Unfortunately the unpredictable nature of tennis reared its ugly head and Murray has shown a decline in form this year.  He has bad losses to much lower ranked players such as Fognini (29), M. Zverev (33), Coric (40), and Pospisil (82!).  Possibly a greater concern is the fact that he hasn’t made it past the semi-finals in a clay tourney yet this year.  I don’t expect him to magically be able to turn it around at Roland Garros and while it wouldn’t be shocking to see Murray make a run, I don’t see him as much of a threat to win in his current form.  After making the finals last year, I predict a relatively early exit in 2017.

Alexander Zverev is a name that most of you will be unfamiliar with but the kid is a goddamn animal on the court.  The recently turned 20 year old has been winning tournaments and taking down some of the top names on the tour in impressive fashion. The 6’6″ German just broke into the top ten in the ATP singles rankings and shows the ability to continue climbing higher.  He’s won two tournaments on clay already this year, including the Master 1000 Rome, and took down Djokovic in straight sets (6 – 4) (6 – 3) to secure that title.  He has clay wins this season against highly ranked players such as Raonic (6), Cilic (8), and Berdych (14).  Along with the Djokovic win, he’s amassed quite an impressive roster of victims on clay this season.  While all this is extremely impressive, his match against Nadal back in April in Monte Carlo shows he still has a long way to go to defeat the great Spaniard.  He was dominated (6 – 1) (6 – 1).

Marin Cilic is the #8 ranked player and has showed solid form on the clay this season.  He took down the the title in Istanbul with a big win over Raonic and has had some other impressive victories over Berdych and Goffin.  We have seen Cilic take down a major when he’s in the zone winning the US Open in 2014.  He won’t win this one but I think he will make a deep run.

Prior to this week I would have counted Stan Wawrinka out considering there hasn’t been too many positive signs from the world #3.  He hasn’t appeared confident on the clay and his lack of aggression has been alarming.  That being said, his play in this week’s Geneva Open has been encouraging and maybe a deep run on his home soil can provide him the confidence he needs going forward.  I have a feeling Wawrinka is starting to get a feel for the surface but it might be too little too late for him to be considered a serious threat to the other worldly Nadal.  After all, he holds a pedestrian 2 – 3 record on the clay prior to this week’s tournament.  I do like his chances to make it to at least the quarters considering his form this week and his tournament history.  After all, he did win this thing in 2015 and made the the semi-finals last year

David Goffin has been one of the most impressive players on the clay this season.  The Belgian’s combination of movement and precision ground strokes make him one of the toughest matchups at the French.  If he’s healthy, he can take out almost any of the top players.  He has proven this with victories over Djokovic, Raonic, & Thiem on clay this year.  Goffin is definitely a guy to keep an eye on and could possibly improve on last year’s quarter-finals appearance.

The Second Tier

The #6 player in the world, Milos Raonic, has been unimpressive on this surface in 2017.  His best win is over Berdych and he has failed against the tougher competition when facing Goffin, A. Zverev, and Cilic.  He just doesn’t pass the eye test right now and I don’t like his chances when he comes up against a tough opponent in the French.  He should beat the less talented players in the early rounds but I expect him to lose when he faces the higher seeds.

Kei Nishikori is not at full health due to a lingering wrist injury and probably wouldn’t be much of a threat anyway.  He will beat who he is supposed to on paper and probably lose once he faces a player with bigger weapons.  He is the new David Ferrer which is not an insult by any means.  His loss to M. Zverev in Geneva this week further confirms he is not in form for a late round appearance.

Everyone always wonders if Juan Martin Del Potro can regain the form that led him to become the 2009 US Open champion by taking down the great Roger Federer.  Well I’m here to tell you that he certainly has not regained that form yet and while I hope the imposing Argentinian can one day, today is not that day.  His backhand is still too much of a liability and so is his 2nd serve. More skilled players will dictate the majority of the points by peppering his backhand with no worries of a return winner from Delpo until they create enough open court to make an aggressive move.  While his first serve and especially his forehand are still powerful weapons, he has too many holes to be considered a contender.  On top of that he lost to the 125th ranked player Gastao Elias this week and is now considering not participating at Roland Garros due to shoulder and back pain.  Expectations should be low for Delpo if he can play.

Berdych has been decent on clay this season but hasn’t impressed when facing the tougher competition.  In the 3 matches where he has faced top level players (Cilic, Raonic, and A. Zverev) he has lost in straight sets.  I fully expect him to demolish his early competitors but he hasn’t proven he can prevail over the top players when facing them on clay this year.  I don’t see a repeat of Berdych’s deep run from 2016 for the big Czech here.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has a good history at Roland Garros but his prep leading up to the tournament has been inadequate.  He pulled out of Madrid with a shoulder issue and has only played 3 matches on the clay all season prior to this weeks tournament in Lyon.  Jo-Willy just hasn’t played enough tennis recently, especially on clay, to be in good form to make a deep run.  Like Wawrinka he is gaining some confidence by playing himself into the finals this week on his home ground in Lyon, France. Unfortunately, I still don’t think that is enough and I predict an early exit for the Frenchman.

Grigor Dimitrov started 2017 in great form on the hard court but the clay has not been so kind to him.  He has played some tough hard fought matches but has failed in the 3rd set more often than not.  I was impressed by his play in Madrid against Thiem a couple weeks ago but he was not able to pull off the victory failing to capitalize on numerous match point chances.  In his current form, Dimitrov does not pose much of a threat.

Nick Kyrgios is one of the most intriguing and talented young players on the tour.  He already has two victories over Djokovic this season and looks like the future of tennis along with Alexander Zverev.  Unfortunately he does not appear healthy as he has been plagued by a nagging hip injury which forced him to withdraw from competing in Rome last week.  He also lost to a pretty trash player in Nicolas Kicker this week and just doesn’t look like he is he is in the right mindset to make some noise.

Sleepers and Upset Specialists

Fabio Fognini comes off as a huge asshole when watching him play but he is an asshole with a ton of talent when he is on his game.  He dominated Andy Murray in Rome last week (6 – 2) (6 – 4) and has some of the most powerful and accurate ground strokes on his good days.  He also has a heated rivalry with Nadal whom he has beaten twice on clay before and can take pride in defeating Nadal in one of the 4 sets he’s dropped on clay this season.  Rafa does not want to see Fognini and his douchey skull covered attire across the net in this one.  While I don’t expect him to make a deep run, he can take out any player in any match. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is responsible for a major upset knocking a top seeded player out of the field.

The 25 year old Pablo Carreno Busta is a very talented player who excels on the clay.  He’s made great strides over the past year and a half and has a solid win at the Estoril Open this year.  He has been disappointing in his last three tournaments but has shown the ability to compete with the top names giving tough matches to Thiem and Djokovic although they ultimately ended in defeat.  He will provide a challenge for any opponent and has the ability to make it into the later rounds.

Like Carreno Busta, Lucas Pouille is a young gifted player especially on clay.  My issue with him is his lack of impressive victories.  He won the Hungarian open over a weak field and the only noteworthy opponent he has defeated is Cuevas in my opinion.  He could make some noise but he hasn’t proven that he is ready to take out the top guys this year.  Like Charlie Kelly, Pouille is a wildcard.

Pablo Cuevas is a wizard out on the red courts.  A true clay court specialist with great fluent motion and a deep understanding of how to use the surface to his advantage.  With an impressive net game and a keen instinct on when to be aggressive, the man can dictate the flow of the match if you let him get into a rhythm.  He already has big wins over A. Zverev and Wawrinka as well as quality victories over Carreno-Busta and Ramos-Vinolas this year.  I like his form and I like his chances to still be playing in week 2.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas is another clay court specialist who has had success at Roland Garros making the quarter finals in 2016. He has shown the ability to play with the top guys on this surface and had nice wins over Murray, Cilic, and Pouille on his way to the finals in Monte Carlo where he got his ass handed to him by Nadal (6 – 1) (6 – 3).  He also has the potential to lose to anyone on any given day.  He has showcased this ability recently by losing his first match in the last 3 tournaments he has played in.  If he can regain his form, Ramos-Vinolas may be able to sneak back into the 4th round or possibly even the quarters again.

Americans

Want to root for an American?  There are 4 players who can make a run into the second week in my opinion.  Those players are Jack Sock, John Isner, Sam Querry, and Stevie Johnson.  Of these four I’m putting my faith in Querry to go the deepest.  He has shown potential on clay this season and had a very competitive match against Wawrinka on Stan’s home soil in Sweden this week.  Isner has also played well on the clay this year, but I’m not sure if he has the stamina to last considering the marathon matches he tends to be involved in.  Honestly, it would be a surprise if any of the Americans made it to the second week, but you never know.

So there it is.  A breakdown of the main contenders in the second major of the season.  As you can see, the field is wide open for many players to make a run.  The question is, can anyone take down Nadal?  Probably not, but we shall see…