Now that the circus surrounding Floyd vs. Conor has finally fookin’ subsided boxing fans can concentrate on the true marquee match of 2017, GGG vs. Alvarez. This Saturday, after over a year of negotiations, our patience is rewarded with a clash between the lineal Middleweight champion (Canelo) and the man who currently holds the majority of the Middleweight belts (GGG). Both men are universally considered top ten pound for pound fighters with exciting and crowd pleasing styles. This should not only be a competitive bout but a fan friendly slugfest filled with non-stop action. It’s another positive step for boxing which has blessed us with numerous high-profile matchups this year such as Joshua/Klitschko, Thurman/Garcia, Brook/Spence Jr., and many others. The card begins on HBO pay-per-view at 8 p.m. ET for $79.99 and is guaranteed to be worth every penny.
THE FIGHTERS
If you don’t know much about these fighters let me fill you in. Gennady Golovkin (GGG) is an undefeated Kazakh fighter who has 33 KO’s over his 37 professional bouts. Until his most recent contest, the 35-year-old was riding a 23 fight KO streak that spanned eight dominant years. In 387 amateur and professional bouts GGG has never tasted the canvas and according to my research has never really been hurt. In my search for evidence of Golovkin getting rocked, the closest I found was this clip in which he took a clean shot and was forced to clinch.
The man seems to have a chin made of iron and hands of steel. No wonder fighters, including Canelo, have been ducking him for years.
Now to fill you in on Canelo. He is a Mexican fighter who turned pro at 15. Yes you read that right, fucking 15! By the time he made his televised US debut at 19 he was already 31-0-1. Just think about that. 32 professional fights by the age of 19. This kid was beating grown men in his teenage years while most of us were beating nothing but our meat. When he made his US debut he had a legendary back story that claimed he had fought MORE than 32 professional fights but many were unsanctioned or not recorded. He has since become one of the biggest draws in all of boxing recording 47 wins with only one loss to the seemingly unbeatable Floyd Mayweather. Compared to GGG, Canelo has fought the tougher competition and compiled impressive victories over skilled fighters such as Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, and Shane Mosley.
THE BUILD UP
Rumors of this fight have been circulating for some time now and it began to feel like another hopeless Mayweather/Pacquiao type negotiation. The two men could not agree on the weight limit and it appeared this fight would not come to fruition until one or both fighters had past their prime. Golovkin seemed unwilling or unable to come down to a lower weight. Canelo had no reason to risk fighting a larger man since he is already one of the biggest draws in boxing and will be paid handsomely regardless of who he faces. So what finally changed to persuade Canelo to move up to 160 and take the fight? I believe his change of heart revolves around GGG’s latest contest against Daniel Jacobs.
Many people think Golovkin’s most recent bout against Jacobs exposed some chinks in the impenetrable armor of the Kazakh fighter. Those who believe this have good reason to do so considering this was undoubtedly his toughest fight in many years. To be fair, Jacobs is an incredibly tough and talented fighter who came into the bout with only one loss on his record, to the retired undefeated Dmitry Pirog, and has defeated a tougher opponent than boxing could ever offer overcoming cancer. Entering the ring that night, Jacobs was the far bigger man rehydrating up to what many believed was 180+ pounds after making the 160 pound limit at the weigh-in. His additional size allowed him to absorb the devastating punching power of GGG and the weight behind his own punches forced Golovkin to respect the shots delivered back. Even with the size discrepancy, GGG took the majority of Jacobs’ shots with a maniacal smile eagerly jumping back in front of him after the Brooklyn native landed. It’s important to mention that Jacobs is no slouch himself when it comes to power. He was coming off 12 straight KO’s and had finished his opponents in 29 of his 32 victories. It appeared, even with the size advantage, that Jacobs could not hurt Golovkin. On the other hand, GGG’s power was clearly still a factor as he scored the only knockdown of the fight in the 4th round.
Canelo’s last fight was against Julio Caesar Chavez Jr. in what should have been a battle for Mexican boxing supremacy. Instead we got a pathetic display from Chavez and a clinic in boxing from Canelo. He lit the bigger rangier Chavez up with combos whenever he wanted and easily won every round on all the judges scorecards. It was an extremely disappointing match which I chronicled in an earlier article (Alvarez Vs. Chavez Jr. Recap: Another Disappointing Mega-Fight) if you’d like to read more about this travesty. I personally refuse to spend any more time talking about this trash fight. The one thing I will say is even with this dominant display, Chavez never appeared to be hurt from the shots of Canelo. This is important to note that even though Alvarez landed clean he could not seem to wobble the larger man. I’m sure GGG took note of this as he watched the bout from ringside before entering to confirm his match with Canelo after the fight.
MY PREDICTION
This fight will be exciting and competitive from the opening bell until the moment it concludes. Alvarez is the quicker fighter which will allow him to land some impressive counters and combos. Unfortunately I don’t think he can hurt GGG no matter how clean he connects. 6 of his last 11 fights have went to a decision and those matches have been against smaller opponents than Golovkin (Except for bitch-ass Chavez Jr.). While Alvarez is a very skilled and well-rounded fighter, there is no reason to believe he has enough power to drop the iron chinned GGG who has never been knocked down in his career.
I think GGG will walk down the talented Alvarez cutting off the ring and applying constant pressure. He will take some clean shots but will eat those and look for opportunities to counter. Alvarez has a tendency to hold his left hand low at times and even Floyd was able to punch right through his guard on multiple occasions. This could leave him vulnerable to GGG’s stiff jab and destructive power shots. I think that Canelo’s inability to hurt GGG will be his shortcoming allowing Golovkin to earn a stoppage between rounds 8 – 10. He is one of the best finishers out there and is relentless when he has his opponent hurt.
In my opinion, the only way to stop GGG is to enter the ring as the much larger man. Jacobs provided the perfect blueprint to demonstrate this game plan. The extra pounds allow you to deal with the power of GGG far better as well as deliver more force on your own shots. If you can hit Golovkin hard enough to make him hesitant to throw then you might have a chance. Alvarez won’t be the larger man in the ring on the 16th. Because of this, he will not be able to deal with GGG’s power or deliver enough power of his own to slow him down. Canelo certainly packs a solid punch which has resulted in some spectacular knockouts of fighters such as Amir Khan and James Kirkland. The difference is those were smaller men who had been KO’d before. GGG is a different breed.
While Canelo has a very good chin of his own, we have seen him hurt before, most notably against Miguel Cotto’s older brother Jose.
This fight was his US debut over 7 years ago and although it shows he can be hurt, we haven’t seen it happen much since then. Then again, he has never fought someone with the power of GGG.
If you bought Mayweather/Mcgregor then you should certainly buy the pay-per-view on this one. Floyd vs Conor was entertaining but this is one of the best matches made in years. Reminiscent of the era of the four kings (Leonard, Hearns, Hagler, Duran) we get two incredible aggressive mid-sized fighters willing to put it all on the line to prove who is the superior warrior. This is a must watch matchup! Don’t miss it.
As a final note, check out each fighters top 5 KO’s.
